Many people in the housing industry are wondering why mortgage rates haven’t fallen even as oil prices have dropped from $111 per barrel to less than $73 today. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.48% and mortgage rates are near their yearly highs.

This is a fair question, and we have already discussed where mortgage rates should go now that the conflict in Iran is truly ending. Today, we’ll give you a brief take on how I view the 10-year yield and mortgage rates — and why, for now, everything looks all right to me.

Fed policy accounts for the bulk of yields, rates

When I speak at events, I always show the chart below and say that this represents the slow dance between the 10-year yield and the 30-year mortgage rate. What drives the 10-year yield in turn drives mortgage rates. And Federal Reserve policy is what drives 65% to 75% of the headline figure.

For years now, my theme for rates has been labor over inflation. In fact, from 2023 through present day, every time the 10-year yield is below 4%, it’s because the market believes the economy is slowing down and the labor market is at risk.

If the Fed cuts benchmark interest rates down to 3%, getting below 3.8% on the 10-year yield is difficult. We’ve been below 3.8% twice recently — once in 2023 and again in 2024. On both occasions, traders believed the labor market was breaking and yields shot back up when it became clear it wasn’t.

This is why I don’t forecast anything below 3.8% on the 10-year yield. To me, this is a recession premise or because the Fed has gotten more dovish than the market is basing neutral policy on.

We went into 2026 with questions about the labor market and assumptions that the Fed would price in two or three cuts. But now we have one rate hike priced in for 2026. This is why I’ve said that, once the U.S.-Iran conflict is over and the Fed becomes less hawkish, we should think of 4.46% to 4.48% as the base point for the 10-year yield until more data or clarity on the Fed arrives.

As I’m writing this, the 10-year yield is at 4.48%. So, to make this point short, the Fed has gone hawkish in a year where rate cuts were initially priced in.

No comment yet from the Fed on the conflict ending

The Fed had a lot to say about the conflict lasting longer and the risk to inflation from higher oil prices. In fact, it made the Fed in general much more hawkish. But now? Nothing much has been said about oil prices since they went back to $73 per barrel.

Now the Fed hawks can say that ending the conflict will make them less hawkish. Maybe over the next few days or weeks, this could help the 10-year yield as Fed policy becomes less restrictive in the marketplace. But until then, don’t expect a change.

In fact, Wall Street firms are now debating how many rate hikes we will see in 2026. Bank of America says there will be three.

Labor data is firm and core inflation is running hot

Going into the year, the Fed was going to ignore tariff-related inflation, which made the inflation data hotter than normal, as officials believed that a one-time price shock would filter out in the second half of 2026.

They might still hold this belief, but the Iran conflict gave them a reason to adopt a more hawkish stance. In general terms, the heat from the inflation data was simply too much to ignore, so all rate cuts for 2026 are off the table for now.

On top of that, recent labor market stabilization has made it easier for the Fed — even with oil prices rising — to not talk about rate cuts, as they see the labor market growing enough to keep the unemployment rate low. With oil prices moving much lower, the hawks can change their mind, but until they guide the market on that, bond traders will keep the 10-year yield closer to yearly highs than lows. If the unemployment rate were at 5%, we would have a different story, but that isn’t the case.

Conclusion

I know some people were anticipating that the 10-year yield and mortgage rates would drop right away with oil prices at $73 a barrel, but a lot has changed in 2026 beyond geopolitics. It is a huge win that this conflict is over and oil prices are down, but the Fed needs to get that message out if they want to quiet a lot of the more aggressive rate-hike talk that some market participants are forecasting.

With the conflict ending, maybe Fed officials can get back to discussing core inflation and when they think it will start to cool off. I can understand the frustration of housing market professionals on this topic — but for now, mortgage rates and the 10-year yield look right to me.